Jim Swartz reported to the Committee that neither Tom Crady nor Jim Sumner was able to attend the meeting. He also reported that he had heard from several people on campus that the admission situation for Fall 2002 was bleak with low numbers of students coming to the 'Discover Grinnell' events. Swartz reputed that although he did not have specific numbers, Crady and Sumner had reported good attendance at the fall admission events and that the 'inquiry pool' of students who have inquired and asked for application information from Grinnell was up substantially over last year.

Swartz then introduced Carol Trosset and Scott Baumler of the Office of Institutional Research to review data on graduation rates and predictors for academic performance. They presented data for Grinnell and its peers indicating that graduation rates correlate highly with selectivity. Grinnell has a graduation rate similar to most of our Midwestern peers, but below that of most of our Eastern peers and Carleton College. It looks as though a key to increasing graduation rate is to increase our selectivity, which requires a larger pool of highly qualified applicants. On examination of what we know from data on matriculated students (from applications and the CIRP survey), we find a list of factors that strongly correlate with high graduation rates includes:

• Average math SAT
• % with self-rated drive to achieve in top 10% of high school peers
• % saying they might transfer out
• % participated in demonstrations in high school
• selectivity (% of applicants accepted)
• yield (% of accepted students matriculating)
• % saying school's academic reputation was very important to their choice
• low difference between average math and average verbal SAT
• % with self-rated emotional health in top 10% of high school peers
• % with self-reported family income >$100,000
• average verbal SAT
• % depressed during 12th grade

Trosset and Baumler then showed correlations of admission scores (high school performance, standardized exams, promise of contribution) with first-year and cumulative GPA. That led to a discussion of the use of the 0-36 point admission scoring system. Some concerns were expressed with the compression of the usable part of the scale, at least for some aspects of the score. We currently have not identified measures of success at Grinnell other than GPA. Committee members recognized the value in having some measures other than grades. Policy discussions will occur when Sumner and Crady can attend the meeting.

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