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I. |
Balance of Payments Statistics - Quantifying Supply and Demand Factors |
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A. |
Accounting practices |
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1. |
Double-entry accounting conventions |
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a. |
Debits - acquiring goods, assets, and IOU's, create greater supply
of a country's currency |
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b. |
Credits - disposing of goods, assets, and IOU's, create greater
demand for a country's currency |
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2. |
Calculating and interpreting a balance |
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a. |
Add up all positive and negative entries "above the line" |
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B. |
What does a current account deficit or an overall deficit imply? |
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1. |
Is
a country living beyond its means, how does it use the additional
goods acquired? |
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2. |
What central bank intervention occurs, how can this be interpreted
in a world of fixed exchange rates, immobile capital v. flexible
exchange rates, mobile capital? |
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3. |
Why do U.S. BP conventions differ from those of the IMF? |
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C. |
The relationship between international transactions and the domestic
money supply |
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1. |
Check involvement of the country's central bank |
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II. |
Predicting a Country's Exchange Rate |
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A. |
Purchasing power parity - a long-run view based on trade in goods
and relative rates of inflation |
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B. |
Asset market approach - the short-run role of relative rates of
return and shifting portfolios internationally |
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III. |
Adjustments in the Trade Balance When Income Varies, but Prices,
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates are Fixed |
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A. |
Income adjustments, changes in imports, and the marginal propensity
to import |
| IV. |
Adjustments in the Trade Balance when Exchange Rates (Prices) Vary |
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A. |
Some basic concepts |
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1. |
How price changes alter quantities traded - supply and demand elasticities |
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2. |
how price changes alter total revenue |
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B. |
Special cases relating currency depreciation to the balance of trade
(calculated in foreign currency) |
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1. |
No price responsiveness of demand in export or import markets -
trade balance worsens |
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2. |
Small country case where international prices are fixed - trade
balance improves |
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3. |
Prices fixed in buyer's currency - a short-run or noncompetitive
market story |
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4. |
Prices fixed in seller's currency - a common approach applied to
industrialized countries |
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C. |
Recognize the relevant time horizon |
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1. |
Short-run adjustment - If quantities traded change little initially,
trade balance may worsen before new contracts are signed or domestic
output expands; yields J curve effect. |
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2. |
Long-run adjustment - Rising income likely attracts more imports.
also, where do resources come from to produce more exports and import-competing
goods? If hiring unemployed, prices may not rise much, but bidding
away from non-traded industries means costs rise throughout economy,
any trade advantage erodes. |
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D. |
Structuralist interpretations of currency depreciation in developing
countries, a key role for income distribution |
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V. |
General Models of Balance of Payments Adjustment and Macroeconomic
Policy |
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A. |
Monetary policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates |
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| 1. |
Are
real interest rates positive? |
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| 2. |
Should
Central Banks target prices of goods, prices of assets, or
the exchange rate? |
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B. |
Fiscal policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates |
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| 1. |
Is
the budget deficit as a share of GDP large and rising? |
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VI. |
Policy Coordination in the European Community and the Reality of
a Single Currency |
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A. |
The goal of common inflation rates, interest rates and fiscal limits |
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B. |
Concerns over unemployment and uneven growth |
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C. |
How are these principles related to dollarization of Guatemala? |
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VII. |
IMF Lending and Financial Crises |
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A. |
Conditionality and the costs of economic adjustment |
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B. |
Should the IMF be abolished or expanded? |